Japan is on track to drop from its current position as the world’s fourth-largest economy to sixth place by 2027, according to projections by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). This anticipated decline comes as India and the United Kingdom are expected to surpass Japan in terms of nominal gross domestic product (GDP).
The IMF estimates Japan’s nominal GDP to be $4.34 trillion in 2026 and $4.47 trillion in 2027. The country’s economic standing is being challenged by the yen’s depreciation against the US dollar and sluggish economic growth. In contrast, India’s GDP is projected to reach $4.52 trillion by 2027, potentially moving it to fourth place globally. The UK is also anticipated to overtake Japan, with a GDP forecast of approximately $4.49 trillion for the same year.
Significant differences in growth outlooks for these economies are noted by the IMF. Japan’s real GDP is expected to grow by just 0.7% in both 2026 and 2027. On the other hand, India is forecast to experience robust growth of 7% annually, driven by strong domestic demand and a thriving services sector. The UK is projected to see moderate growth, with GDP increasing by 1.3% in 2026 and 1.2% in 2027.
Japan, which held the title of the world’s second-largest economy for many years before being overtaken by China in 2010, has now fallen behind Germany as well, dropping to fourth place in 2023. The latest IMF projections underscore the shifting dynamics among the world’s largest economies and highlight the growing economic influence of India.